But to the province's powerful tribal leaders, the prospect of such investment is troubling - bringing increased military
presence and foreign development without assurances that the rewards will benefit the Baloch people. And tribal militants
are making their feelings known in harsh terms.
In recent weeks, militants have fired hundreds of rockets at military installations, derailed trains, and murdered three
Chinese engineers at work at a cement factory in the town of Hub. They've also cut off gas supplies for days by attacking
existing pipelines.
Both Pakistan's current and future economic growth hinges on developing Balochistan, particularly its energy resources.
But, analysts say, that very development could destabilize the country by intensifying pressure on the province - and encourage
meddling from other countries with interests in the region.
"Balochistan is potentially very rich. It's where most of the development will be, and the establishment knows it. Suddenly
it realizes it needs better control over the province," says Ayesha Siddiqa, a defense analyst in Islamabad.
Senator Sana ullah Baloch, a leading Baloch politician, does not openly condone violence, but says it's a last resort.
Like most Balochs, he's not interested in secession. But he feels his local government is a pawn of Islamabad, and wants increased
autonomy. His province provides more than 40 percent of Pakistan's energy, but reaps only 12.4 percent in royalties and has
historically seen little development aid.
Balochs have come to blows with Islamabad at least four times since 1947, when Pakistan was created. But most analysts
agree the province is being squeezed harder now under President Pervez Musharraf.
That pressure has its source in the country's immediate energy needs. The natural-gas reserves currently being exploited
in the region are expected to dry up by 2012. With demand growing, Pakistan needs more gas - and most untapped reserves lie
in the troubled province. Some 19 trillion cubic feet, the largest known reserves in the country, are still buried in its
ground.
That reality sends shivers down the spines of Baloch nationalists. "The entire economic future is completely reliant on
Balochistan," points out Senator Baloch. "But it's not for the people of Balochistan. It's all controlled by the federal government
and will benefit the federal government."
According to a government energy security document, demand over the next five years is expected to grow at a rate of 7.4
percent annually. Its prescription is to increase domestic exploration as well as diversify supplies by importing gas and
liquified natural gas.
The document notes that Pakistan's energy needs will more than double in the next decade. Meeting those requirements, it
says, will mean investing $6 billion a year for the next 25 years, for a total of $150 billion by 2030.
"We are approaching an era where energy will become a critical commodity," points out Javed Jabbar, a former minister of
petroleum. "We have to develop our energy potential, and Balochistan is an important part of that."
Mr. Jabbar says such development is critical. "Our population is projected to more than double in the next 30 years. We're
scheduled to become the fourth-largest country, behind India, China, and the US," he says.
With tensions flaring, many wonder if Islamabad's bid for a brighter future is threatening the integrity of the country.
The "Balkanization" of Pakistan is common fodder in conversations and editorial pages. Many are comparing the situation with
that in 1971, when East Pakistan broke away to become Bangladesh.
"It's just like Bosnia - initially it was a domestic issue, but it is becoming an international issue," says Moonis Ahmer,
a professor at the University of Karachi.
Others argue that Musharraf risks compromising the war on terror by spreading the Army too thin to put down what appears
to be a rising insurgency. "The more the Army is deployed, the more it will be sucked into a quagmire," says Professor Ahmer.
"The military is being stretched far and wide."
Many analysts dismiss these assessments as premature, but caution that Islamabad needs to reverse years of neglect and
exploitation.
"At the moment there is no framework for talking," says retired Lt. Gen. Talat Masood. "They should seek a political solution.
You have to take several measures, political and social, over several years."
Pakistan also has to keep an eye on its neighbors' view of the conflict. Balochistan shares thousands of miles of border
with Afghanistan and Iran, which have Baloch populations.
Iran helped Islamabad defeat Baloch nationalists in 1973. But India has indicated tacit support for the province, pointing
to human-rights concerns. China, meanwhile, has sought assurances from Musharraf that its investments and workers will be
protected.
For Washington, the central issue is the proposed $ 7 billion pipeline from Iran, which is still under negotiation, but
to which Musharraf has recently pledged his support. Some 475 miles of the 1,700-mile long pipeline would traverse Balochistan
on its way to India. The US says the pipeline would provide a bridge between Tehran, whose nuclear ambitions worry the US,
and nuclear rivals Pakistan and India. President Bush is likely to raise these concerns when he visits here this week.
Spokesmen for the government and the Army insist there is no military buildup in Balochistan, and that security will be
ensured. "There is no military operation," says Aftab Ahmed Sherpao, Pakistan's interior minister. "I think the government
will succeed in curbing this, if we can call it, insurgency."
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RICH CLABAUGH - STAFF
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Opposition’s Round Table Conference stresses dialogue for Balochistan
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Tuesday February 28, 2006 (0404 PST)
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ISLAMABAD: The opposition held Round Table Conference on Monday, stressed on the need for a conducive
and harmonious dialogue to end the crisis situation prevailing in the country.
The Conference arranged and attended by ARD, also "suggested" non-participation in the forthcoming General
elections of 2007, if held under The Musharraf Regime, establishment of an independent Election Commission, and severe condemnation
of the policies of the government.
Addressing the Conference, the Chairman ARD, Makhdoom Amin Fahim demanded an immediate cessation of operations
in Balochistan and adoption of the process of dialogue to solve the crisis.
He maintained that generals might as well turn their attention towards their original job of guarding
the frontiers.
He also blamed the government of mass killings of innocent women and children in the beleaguered province,
and not effectively pursuing the blasphemy issue.
Charmin PML (N) , Raja Zafar-Ul-Haq , resembled the Balochistan crisis as similar to those of Bangladesh
in 1971. He said that the current regime is hyping the siphoning of 5 billion worth of illegal armaments from Afghanistan,
and at the same time it is carrying out joint ventures with the same Afghan government in the fields of rail and bus services.
He also blamed the government of carrying out procedures similar to those of Dutch government in its
coping with the Blasphemy case.
The Baloch politician, Abdul Hayee urged APC to interact in a one-day shutter down strike with Balochistan
"polity", and the federal government would come to its senses.
He demanded complete autonomy for the provinces, with the Federal government limited to issues of Defense,
Foreign Affairs, currency and communication, while the provinces should be free to pursue the rest at its own.
He blamed the government of ruining almost an entire region to ashes, and refused to surrender any arms.
He also accused Islamabad of mercilessly exploiting Balochistan Gas reserves.
PTI Chairman Imran Khan said that judiciary and election Commission are always the first casualties of
the dictatorship. He blamed the government of fighting it own masses in Wazirstan Agency.
He also vowed that PTI, along with MMA and ARD would also join (protest) march towards Pindi, during
President Bush’s official tour to Pakistan.
The secretary general of JWP, Agha Shahid Bugti cautioned Islamabad to heed the flames of Balochistan.
He said that despite witnessing the death of personal family members and friends, we still stand steadfastly loyal to Federation
of Pakistan. Despite that Pakistan is treating us as cruelly as Indian troops are victimizing IOK, and Israel is victimizing
Palestinians.
He expressed his total distrust on the Parliamentary committee, and asserted that the real and conducive
development of the Province happened during the tenure of the very three sardars, disliked by Musharraf.
Speaking on the occasion, Opposition leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman considered the establishment of an
independent election commission as a must for free fair and transparent elections.
He also berated USA of proposed signing of a nuclear deal with India, while ignoring Pakistan.
Begum Abida Hussain simply refused to contest elections under General Musharraf’s regime and accused
him of butchering Baloch women and children.
Sixty eight leaders from all opposition parties attended the Round Table Conference.
Later ARD Chairman, Makhdoom Amin Fahim released a joint declaration on the conclusion of conference
in the presence of other opposition leaders.
Amin Fahim said participants of the conference after long deliberations have reached the conclusion that
incumbent government has failed on all fronts. Following the October, 12, 1999 military take over the country had plunged
into worst ever crisis of its history after East Pakistan debacle. This has put the integrity, solidarity and sovereignty
of the country at stake.
He alleged that the government subjected the peaceful demonstrations on blasphemous cartoon issue to
violence and registered false cases against the leaders of political and religions parties and member of assemblies under
terrorism act.
He went on to say government had failed to present the stance of Islam at international level. Balochistan
has been pushed into carnage. General Musharraf and his stooges are using army for violent acts against the innocent people
of Balochistan. Government has badly failed in safeguarding the sovereignty of the country in tribal areas particularly in
Bajaur.
He accused the flawed economic policies of government has led to increase number of jobless people by
3 million. Inflation is rampant and the life of farmers has been made miserable.
The conference held the rulers responsible for sugar crisis. The perks and privileges of the President,
Prime Minister and other ministers have been increased by 140 percent and on the other hand only 15 percent increase was announced
in the salaries of low paid government employees.
The conference declared that NAB has been turned into an institution of political victimization, corruption
and horse trading. The entire system of NAB be done away with and the accountability related cases be referred to the courts
of law.
Conference demanded of the government to remove all the obstacles on the way of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz
Sharif and other leaders to return home besides calling for immediate release of Javed Hashmi, , Yusuf Raza Gillani, Afaq
Shahid, Khawaja Saad Rafiq, Zaeem Qadri, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, Mian Aslam and other political workers and leaders.
In the eyes of conference , Amin Fahim said General Musharraf has blocked the way for further promotion
of deserving military officers by occupying the office of army chief of staff illegally. Army is becoming controversial day
by day.
Conference supported the peace process on Kashmir issue. However it condemned the government for compromising
on principled stance of Pakistan on Kashmir.
Due to the incompetency of the government the pledges made in the donors conference were not fulfilled,
Fahim underlined.
Conference concluded that the present set up under General Pervez Musharraf had become security risk
for suppressing the freedom of judiciary, promoting nepotism, widening gulf of hatred between the federation and provinces
and compromising national interest on foreign agenda. Giving more time to the creators of the present set up will amount to
playing with the existence of the country.
Conference announced to launch decisive movement to bring the present set up to end. 8-member steering
committee has been set up under Iqbal Zafar Jhagra to chalk out program for implementation of joint declaration. The members
of the committee are Raja Pervez Ashraf, Hafiz Hussain Ahmad, Liaqat Baloch, Aman Ullah Kanrani, Munir Hussain Gillani, Haji
Ghulam Ahmad Bilore and Akbar Babar.
Conference announces to participate vehemently in March, 3 country wide strike, Fahim added. | |
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